Saudi bank loans increase by 11% to reach $706bn, fueled by real estate activities

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Debt Capital Market is expected to hit $500 billion by the end of 2025, fueled by the Kingdom's economic diversification efforts under Vision 2030, according to Fitch Ratings.

In its latest report, Fitch highlighted several factors contributing to this growth, including the government’s need for deficit funding, maturing obligations, and continued reforms.

The DCM, which involves the trading of securities like bonds and promissory notes, serves as a key mechanism for raising long-term capital for both businesses and governments.

Fitch also noted that the DCM in the Gulf Cooperation Council region had surpassed the $1 trillion mark by November 2024, bolstered by strong oil revenues. The agency predicts continued growth, with the GCC region expected to remain one of the largest emerging-market issuers of dollar-denominated debt through 2025.

“Saudi Arabia’s sukuk market maintains a strong credit profile, with 97.4 percent of Fitch-rated Saudi sukuk rated investment-grade and 98 percent of issuers holding a stable outlook. Notably, no Fitch-rated Saudi sukuk or bonds defaulted in 2024,” said Bashar Al-Natoor, global head of Islamic finance at Fitch Ratings.

He added: “2025 has started strong, with a growing pipeline of issuances. We expect the market to surpass $500 billion by year end, driven by Vision 2030 initiatives, robust government support, and favorable funding conditions.”

Fitch’s analysis further said that Saudi Arabia became the largest dollar-denominated debt issuer in emerging markets (outside of China) and the world’s largest sukuk issuer in 2024. The Kingdom’s DCM grew by 20 percent year on year in 2024, reaching $432.5 billion in outstanding debt.

The report also emphasized the increasing importance of environmental, social, and governance debt in the region, with $18.6 billion in outstanding ESG-related bonds in 2024.

Saudi banks have significantly expanded their international DCM activities since 2020, aligning with their growth strategies and foreign-currency requirements. Additionally, corporates are diversifying their funding sources, moving beyond traditional bank loans, according to Fitch.

In another report, Fitch projected that global ESG sukuk issuances will exceed $50 billion in outstanding debt by 2025, driven by major Islamic finance markets like Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. The agency noted a 23 percent year-on-year growth in global ESG sukuk, which reached $45.2 billion in 2024, outpacing the 16 percent growth in global ESG bonds.

RIYADH: An International Retail Council designed to unite top experts, decision-makers, and industry stakeholders has been launched at an industry event in Riyadh.

Announced at the Retail Leaders Circle Global Forum, event chairman Panos Linardos said the new body will tackle upcoming challenges and opportunities facing the sector across the globe.

This year’s gathering, taking place from Feb. 4 to 5, comes as the Kingdom’s retail sector continues to show strong resilience and sustained growth, with total sales reaching SR37.4 billion ($9.97 billion) in the third quarter of 2024, despite ongoing global economic uncertainties. 

Retail sales in the Kingdom are forecast to reach $161.4 billion by 2028, according to data platform Statista, while the e-commerce sector is projected to surpass $13.2 billion by 2025.

Setting out the importance of the new council, Linardos said: “The IRC is not just another industry initiative — it is a forward-thinking response to an evolving global landscape.” 

He added: “Retail is more interconnected than ever, yet faces growing complexity in regulation, technology, and consumer behavior. The IRC will unite leaders, visionaries, and experts to facilitate global dialogue, drive innovation, and shape policies that will define the industry’s next era.” 

During his speech, the chairman highlighted that the IRC will initially focus on four key pillars shaping the future of commerce: luxury goods, retail real estate, cross-border trade, and grocery businesses.

Linardos also shed light on how geopolitical changes, economic volatility, supply chain challenges, and the rapid growth of artificial intelligence, as well as digital commerce, are transforming the retail industry at an unprecedented rate. 

“The rules of global trade are being rewritten, cross-border commerce is evolving, and consumer expectations are shifting faster than ever before. In this moment of transformation, the need for collaborative leadership, innovation, and a strategic vision for the future of retail has never been greater,” he said.

The chairman added that the discussions at the forum will reflect shared goals and help lay the groundwork for actionable solutions.

Held under the theme “Rebuilding a Shared Future,” the event commenced with the “Business Outlook: Navigating A New Global Order” session. 

It explored how geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and fast-paced technological advancements are affecting global commerce, with international business leaders sharing strategies to turn volatility into opportunity while fostering resilience and innovation.

Another session titled “A New Leadership Order: Building Growth in Turbulent Times” followed, highlighting the importance of leadership in overcoming economic challenges, boosting productivity, and promoting sustainable growth.

Industry experts shared strategies during the session for navigating complex business environments and using strategic adaptability to succeed in a constantly changing marketplace.

Discussions also centered on the transformative impact of social commerce, which is changing how consumers shop, engage with brands, and interact online.

With e-commerce in the Middle East expected to reach $57 billion by 2026, the importance of marketplaces in meeting shifting consumer expectations is crucial. 

Chief Content Officer at EMARKETER Zia Daniell Wigder presented a report created in collaboration with the RLC Global Forum which offered a data-driven roadmap for the future of e-commerce in the Gulf Cooperation Council, providing valuable insights into consumer trends, market dynamics, and opportunities for sustainable growth in the region.

AI was another key focus of the day, with several sessions exploring its transformative impact on the retail sector. 

Industry leaders discussed how the technology is being leveraged to enhance personalization, optimize supply chains, and improve operational efficiencies at scale.

According to a new report released by Knight Frank, Riyadh and Jeddah are driving a major transformation in Saudi Arabia’s lifestyle retail sector, reshaping the retail scene with 394,900 sq. meters of upcoming developments, all scheduled for completion by 2027.

The report further disclosed that the planned developments include food and beverage outlets, entertainment options, and lively public spaces.

Both major Saudi cities currently provide 670,500 sq. meters of lifestyle retail space, reflecting a 12 percent surge over the past year.

In Riyadh, the average lease rate for retail spaces is SR2,360 per sq. meter, with a 96 percent occupancy rate, while in Jeddah, lease rates average SR2,030 per sq. meter, with an occupancy rate of 70 percent.